Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 95.8%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 4 14 - 2 +19.3      +12.3 1 +7.0 20 76.7 32 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 BYU 43.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 7 11 - 5 +9.7      +6.7 27 +3.0 91 71.6 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
74 St. Mary's 32.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 9 9 - 7 +7.7      +4.9 57 +2.8 94 60.6 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
91 San Francisco 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 9 - 7 +5.9      +3.1 95 +2.8 93 69.9 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
108 Pepperdine 11.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 8 - 8 +4.3      +4.8 60 -0.5 182 74.6 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Santa Clara 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 7 - 9 +2.4      +1.7 130 +0.7 150 75.7 40 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 Pacific 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 7 - 9 +1.5      -0.5 185 +1.9 114 62.7 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Loyola Marymount 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 7 - 9 +0.5      +0.6 150 -0.1 168 59.5 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 San Diego 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 13 6 - 10 0.0      -1.5 212 +1.5 120 73.1 72 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 Portland 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 3 - 13 -5.9      -3.7 277 -2.3 241 70.3 134 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.3 81.7 12.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
BYU 3.2 13.7 32.8 19.5 12.6 8.3 5.5 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.4
St. Mary's 4.1 7.1 21.2 18.8 15.2 12.4 9.4 7.1 5.0 2.8 0.9
San Francisco 4.6 4.1 15.1 17.2 15.8 14.4 11.8 9.4 6.5 4.1 1.6
Pepperdine 5.2 2.6 10.6 14.3 14.6 14.6 13.5 11.2 9.1 6.7 2.8
Santa Clara 5.8 1.5 7.1 11.1 13.0 13.4 14.0 13.4 12.0 9.6 4.9
Pacific 6.2 0.9 5.3 7.9 10.8 12.8 14.0 14.6 14.5 12.4 6.8
Loyola Marymount 6.3 0.7 5.3 9.2 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.8 14.3 13.0 8.0
San Diego 6.8 0.5 3.3 6.0 8.5 10.7 13.2 14.4 15.6 17.1 10.6
Portland 8.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.9 8.0 12.9 21.9 45.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 7.5 13.2 20.7 28.0 23.5
BYU 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.7 8.3 11.3 13.5 14.9 14.8 12.0 7.7 3.6 0.8
St. Mary's 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.8 4.5 7.1 9.7 12.1 13.5 13.3 12.7 10.1 7.2 3.4 1.5 0.3
San Francisco 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.3 11.6 13.8 14.2 13.2 10.6 7.0 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.1
Pepperdine 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.9 9.0 11.0 13.0 14.0 12.8 11.3 7.8 5.5 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.0
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.2 8.0 11.3 13.2 13.7 12.9 11.3 8.9 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Pacific 7 - 9 0.4 1.7 3.9 6.5 10.6 13.1 14.0 13.8 12.1 9.3 6.9 4.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 0.4 2.1 4.4 7.3 10.2 12.8 13.4 12.8 11.4 9.4 6.9 4.6 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
San Diego 6 - 10 0.8 2.8 5.7 10.1 12.5 14.0 13.8 12.7 10.2 7.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland 3 - 13 8.0 15.2 18.2 17.3 14.0 10.6 7.4 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 81.7% 71.5 9.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
BYU 13.7% 7.9 4.9 0.8 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 7.1% 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 4.1% 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
Pepperdine 2.6% 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Santa Clara 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Portland 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 95.8% 65.8% 30.0% 1   25.3 18.3 10.1 9.5 6.8 5.0 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 87.7%
BYU 43.2% 12.8% 30.4% 0.8 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 5.5 6.5 6.9 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 56.8 34.9%
St. Mary's 32.1% 7.6% 24.5% 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.7 4.1 5.3 6.2 5.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 67.9 26.5%
San Francisco 18.9% 5.1% 13.8% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 81.1 14.6%
Pepperdine 11.3% 3.4% 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 88.7 8.1%
Santa Clara 5.1% 2.1% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.9 3.1%
Pacific 3.7% 1.3% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.3 2.4%
Loyola Marymount 2.8% 1.0% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.2 1.8%
San Diego 2.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.0 1.2%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 95.8% 0.8% 95.5% 81.1% 56.3% 37.1% 23.7% 14.5% 8.8%
BYU 43.2% 5.7% 40.6% 21.4% 8.4% 3.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%
St. Mary's 32.1% 5.4% 29.5% 13.9% 4.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
San Francisco 18.9% 3.6% 17.0% 7.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Pepperdine 11.3% 2.4% 9.9% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 5.1% 1.2% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 3.7% 1.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.8% 0.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 2.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 20.4 49.3 25.5 4.5 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.0 24.3 50.6 21.9 3.0 0.2
2nd Round 91.2% 1.3 8.8 55.9 30.9 4.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 65.0% 0.7 35.0 56.1 8.6 0.3
Elite Eight 42.2% 0.4 57.8 40.0 2.1 0.0
Final Four 26.0% 0.3 74.0 25.6 0.4
Final Game 15.7% 0.2 84.3 15.6 0.0
Champion 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3